Jasonified.

So iPhone 4S or iPhone 5?

If we look at what we know about Apple and how they release products and iOS updates, *and* the dates/time-scales involved I believe it’s possible to accurately predict what we’ll see happen this year.

Before I start, here are the constants:-

1. We know that Apple have an (approx) annual release cycle - iPhone 1 - 4 have been released around the same time each year. This is the same for most of their products.

2. We know that Apple are going to “preview” iOS 5.0 at this years WWDC in June

3. We know that following an announcement / presentation of a new iOS version, they go through beta testing with developers and this takes *around* 3 months to complete.

(so June preview, we’re looking at September…hold that thought)

4. We know that we’ve missed the usual annual cycle for the iPhone (it should have been announced already) which means it’s most likely to be released after June/July this year.

5. We know that every *major* release of the iPhone has had an iOS dedicated to it. iPhone 1 = iOS 1.0, iPhone 2 = iOS 2.0, iPhone 3G/3GS = iOS 3.0/3.X, iPhone 4 = iOS 4.0

6. Apple (to my knowledge) have never released a new version of a hardware product within a year. (waits to be proved wrong shattering everything else I’ve spewed out here)

7. Apple have never released information on an iPhone release more than 5 months before it’s launch (iPhone 1 was announced Jan 2007 and released in June 2007)

8. The world ends in October (let’s come back to this one…)

So given what we know here’s what I think we’ll see:-

1. Apple preview iOS 5 to the world then release an iPhone 4S with iOS 4.X with hardware improvements leaving an iPhone 5/iOS 5 to Q4 2012 giving their competitors a *massive* advantage.

2. Apple preview iOS 5 to the world then release an iPhone 4S with iOS 4.X with hardware improvements and *then* release iPhone 5 before Q4 2012 (which would have to be Q1 2012 therefore busting the annual release cycle)

3. Apple preview iOS 5 to the world then release the iPhone 4S in September which runs iOS 5 and they throw out the whole hardware/iOS version match up leaving us to wait to Q4 2012 for iPhone 5.

4. Apple skip a new phone, release iOS 5 for iPhone 4 owners and we have to wait until Q4 2012 for iPhone 5 which will run iOS 5.X, some 15 months after it was previewed?

5. Apple merely “talk about” iOS 5 at WWDC, don’t show specific details and don’t demo it and it’s going to come out “some time in the future” and in the meantime we see an iPhone 4S that’s faster etc. running iOS 4.X .

OK so given all of this here’s what I end up with:-

1. iOS 5 will be announced *and* demoed at WWDC in June

2. It’ll be made available almost immediately as a beta to developers

3. Over the next 3 months it’ll be beta tested and updated to become a GM release

4. It’ll go gold in September at the same time as the iPhone 5 is released.

5. The iPhone 5 will be based on the same physical size/shape as the iPhone 4. It will definitely have a better camera, more internal memory and the A5 chip and most likely will it’ll stick with 16/32gb models. It’ll run iOS 5 and will be announced/released in a “mini” event at Apple Town Hall.

There you go.